Best Betting Picks for Day 1 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup

The first day of the 2026 World Cup is here with two games south of the border.

Co-host Mexico opens the tournament against South Africa on Thursday afternoon at the Estadio Azteca.

Later in Guadalajara, South Korea and Czechia meet in the other Group A encounter.

Here are our best bets for the opening two matches of the largest World Cup ever played.

Player to score first in Mexico vs. South Africa

One of Javier Aguirre’s first tasks when he took over the Mexican squad was to re-establish Raul Jimenez as his center forward.

Since then, the Fulham No. 9 has scored 10 of 21 appearances for his national team, including six goals across four games in the semifinals and finals of the Concacaf Nations League and Concacaf Gold Cup in 2025.

But what really stands out is the veteran’s ability to score early in matches, even when the game has yet to develop a rhythm.

Of those 10 appearances for El Tri with a goal, he has scored the match’s first goal on six occasions, including in three of those four Concacaf matches.

After his long recovery following a head injury that nearly ended his career almost six years ago, Jimenez has been unfazed in big moments. He won’t be rattled here either, making him an excellent bet to score the match’s first goal at +425 odds and an implied 19.0% probability.

Pick: Raul Jimenez to score first (+425, Fanatics)

Mexico exact total goals

While Aguirre’s outfit likes to turn on the style in friendlies, when they grab a lead in competitive games, they generally prefer to manage outcomes by keeping the ball rather than seeking add-on goals.

They’ve won seven of the 10 competitive Concacaf fixtures they’ve played since his return. But despite being dominant in many of those matches against overmatched regional opposition, they’ve exceeded two goals only once, while landing on that exact total on four occasions.

The dynamic against a South African side comprised mostly of domestically based talent could be similar to some of those regional clashes against a Panama, Honduras or Canada.

That makes Mexico to score exactly twice a good wager at +220 odds and an implied 31.3% probability.

Pick: Mexico to score exactly two goals (+220, FanDuel)

South Korea second-half total goals

South Korea haven’t had much luck in their recent tournament openers, but the clash in Guadalajara (or in nearby Zapopan, if you wish to be exact) could offer an advantage: the altitude.

If Son Heung-min and company have shown a consistent trait over their World Cup appearances, it’s an exceptional level of fitness.

That has shown up repeatedly in the World Cup group stage, where they’ve scored in the second half in 14 out of their last 21 games going back to when the field expanded to 32 teams in 1998.

And there might be even more open space than usual late in the match if Czechia finds itself struggling not only with the pressure the Koreans generally apply, but also the altitude.

The wager here is on South Korea to score after the interval at even money and a 50% implied probability. Even 20 or 30 cents higher, it would probably still represent betting value.

Pick: Yes - South Korea to score after halftime (Even, theScoreBet)